Welcome to the next Stonehill Forex Indicator Study. This research represents an investigative look into how and why some indicators work and some don’t work as well.
We introduce indicators not included with the MT4 platform to find more efficient indicators which may yield superior results than older indicators better suited for different markets.
Our Next Indicator Choice is…
The Super Trend is our next confirmation indicator choice. This indicator was developed by Olivier Saban, a French trader, and promoted in his 2006 book “Tout le monde mérite d’être riche”. There are multiple variations available online with various degrees of control and modifications (i.e. changes); however, we’ll take a look at the original. By creating an indicator that utilizes our favorite indicator – the ATR (Average True Range), he was able to identify trends early in the market which are quite clear on a chart, as we’ll see below.
The “confirmation indicator” falls into the category of the indicators that serve as an initial checkpoint after the baseline indicator. It is an on-chart indicator, overlaying price (see snapshot below). These concepts are explained in great detail in the Stonehill Forex Advanced Course: HERE.
* Single line signal
*Easy to identify long/short trends
*Makes a good exit signal
Calculations are the Answer
Up = (high + low) / 2 + multiplier x ATR
Down = (high + low) / 2 – multiplier x ATR
Calculation of Average True Range
[(Prior ATR x 9) + Current TR] / 10*
*Assumes that period is 10
The three steps to calculate the values are:
1. Calculate the “True Range”.
2. Calculate the median price of the most current candle.
3. Utilize a “multiplier”. This factor represents the number of times you add the ATR to the last candle’s median price.
Below is a screenshot of what the indicator looks like on the daily time frame. Note that we’ve changed the candles to “white” in order to remove any bias. We’ve also thickened the indicator line to make it more visible.
How We Use It
The signal occurs on the opening of the period following the close of the candle below (long) or above (short) the Super Trend line, when you see the color change.
During our research, it was suggested that the line itself may be used to provide a stop loss level or as a point of price reversal; however, since we don’t advocate those methods in our trades, you can ignore those aspects of the indicator as noted in the screenshots below.
* Long = Super Trend indicator changes from Red to Green. Entry on open of next candle
* Short = Super Trend indicator changes from Green to Red. Entry on open of next candle
The settings include; “nbr_Periods” and “Multiplier”. The default settings are; 10 and 3.0. Before we take a closer look, I’ll explain what each parameter represents.
Period: The number of periods used to calculate the ATR.
Multiplier: Changes the “sensitivity” to price change. Shorter values create more signals and quicker reactivity to price changes. Longer values may distort the True Range values, which can result in less signals.
Remember, comprehensive analysis is strongly suggested, and we advocate backwards and forward testing indicators or systems prior to trading actual funds. We propose conducting your tests on the following five pairs.
If it doesn’t work on these five pairs, chances are it won’t work on other pairs. This is not an absolute, but we’ve found this rule is reliable in most cases.
We’ve added two other pairs to our testing sequence based on feedback we’ve received from our community. They are the:
BTC/USD (Bitcoin/US Dollar)
XAU/USD (Gold/US Dollar)
Timeframes and Results
In our initial test, we’ll run the Super Trend indicator on the EUR/USD, the BTC/USD and XAU/USD using the default settings across the daily and 4-hour timeframes on the MT4 strategy tester. We use the fast method of testing the indicator to get a general idea; however, you may also run the tick-by-tick data set for a more precise result (which takes considerably more time).
As No Nonsense Traders – and therefore Swing Traders, we will not examine shorter time frames in these studies. We will also run an additional test, using different values for the settings, to analyze which one may work better and examine the following results:
ROI (return on investment)
There are other metrics included in the strategy tester report, which can be compared, but these three metrics provide the necessary gauge to make quick decisions as to the usefulness of a particular indicator and its settings.
Next, for comparison, we’ll explore the following;
Daily – 1 year
4-hour – 3 months
The reason exceptionally long (or short) testing periods are not included is due to changing market conditions, which might return irrelevant information. A balance of statistically significant data is necessary for accurate results.
And the Outcome…
Below are the spreadsheets listing the results from our tests.
The green highlighted rows represent “basic tweaks” on the settings which returned better results. Are these the best? Not necessarily. Given that variables including testing date range and broker data are different from person to person, you may find better settings.
Remember, the overall NNFX philosophy of taking profit, risk, and drawdown is that YOU are creating a system which YOU will be trading. Don’t let anybody else take that away from you. Part of the learning process is digging in and doing the work yourself. To learn more about these topics, check out the advanced course!
That beings said, the results we post in these blogs should never be considered specific trading advice.
***Note: Remember, never use just this one indicator as your decision of whether to open or close a trade. It should be part of a system.
If you are curious as to what money management is used on our tests; we have a certain way of determining wins and losses, which can be found in the Advanced Course. Our goal here is to determine how well the indicator reacts to price with respect to producing a long or short signal. Your system, with its risk profile, will dictate individual returns.
As we did with past indicator studies, we’ve made the Super Trend indicator available for download on our site from the indicator library. We will keep adding better indicators with each study for your use, at no charge. When you’re ready to get it, click HERE.
More to Come
There’s a lot more to come. We are excited to provide more trading tips in the near future. Sign up on our contacts page or subscribe to our YouTube channel. Receive early notifications as we continue to publish helpful, relevant, and informative Forex related material to support your quest to become a better trader.
And, now you are aware of another indicator that many traders don’t know or use.
Our only goal is to make you a better trader.
BTW – Any information communicated by Stonehill Forex Limited is solely for educational purposes. The information contained within the courses and on the website neither constitutes investment advice nor a general recommendation on investments. It is not intended to be and should not be interpreted as investment advice or a general recommendation on investment. Any person who places trades, orders or makes other types of trades and investments etc. is responsible for their own investment decisions and does so at their own risk. It is recommended that any person taking investment decisions consults with an independent financial advisor. Stonehill Forex Limited training courses and blogs are for educational purposes only, not a financial advisory service, and does not give financial advice or make general recommendations on investment.